“How Could I Be So Wrong While Being So Confident I Was Right?” KEW Episode 96: Type II Error

You know you do it. You think you are right about something, only to find out you were incredibly, undeniably, 180 degrees wrong.

It happens. To all of us. To all of us humans, anyway.

We all think we’re right. If we didn’t, we wouldn’t have conviction. We’d be open. We’d be undecided.

Once we have made a decision, well, that decision is correct, correct? I mean, right?

But not always.

Many of us are plagued by self-doubt. And this might be a healthy thing in this context. We should carry with us a humble sense of openness to being wrong. Sure, we can feel right. We probably *should* believe in ourselves and in our unique right-ness. But even in our most confident I think it’s important, even critical, to leave the door open – even slightly ajar – for being wrong.

So ‘right’ is kind of like ‘truth’. They may or may not exist, but it doesn’t matter because we’ll never be or find either one. The key is to get close.

To approach being ‘right’ with just enough humility that allows us to also be wrong.

Because we always need a direction – something to work toward. A HYPOTHESIS, if you will.

And a hypothesis is just a fancy way of saying an idea that we think and/or feel fairly sure is real. Something we figure makes sense. Helps us answer a question, or achieve a goal, or make a decision that is important. We need to move through our days, after all.

But every hypothesis NECESSARILY and BY DEFINITION has a companion with it – the ‘null’ hypothesis.

The null hypothesis is that door you left open, even just a little bit. The null hypothesis basically says, ‘well, my hypothesis MAY not be truer after all’. Or, in other words, ‘I could be wrong’.

So every guess, decision, idea, direction, feeling, surety, or move forward we have MUST always be accompanied by an opposing force that allows for all of those things to be inaccurate. Incorrect. Wrong.

That’s how science is set up and we can equivalently set up our every day thinking to mimic this . . . . modesty.

So we always have an option of being incorrect. Which directs us toward the next question of interest.

Well, that didn’t pan out, how about this?

The secret is not go get bogged down. To move forward. To let the water roll off your back as if you were a duck.

This behavior is healthy. And it has the added benefit of helping you appear less arrogant and more likable:)

So the Type II and Type I error are basically which hypothesis you choose. This system allows for mistakes. Sometimes you think you’re wrong but you aren’t. Other times you think you’re right but you’re wrong.

So not only do we leave the door open about being wrong, we leave a couple more doors open that allow for similar errors.

Makes you wonder how we could possibly move through life thinking we are always right.

You will find the Knowledge + Experience = Wisdom podcast on all the popular apps, and on the KEW YouTube channel.

Podcast direct download: https://pdcn.co/e/https://chtbl.com/track/CGDA9D/www.buzzsprout.com/530563/10550253-kew-episode-96-type-ii-error.mp3?download=true

YouTube video: https://youtu.be/xDS9rNHMfv0