It’s a numbers game

I can almost always explain an observation, conflict, dilemma, or issue, with the ‘too many people’ explanation.

I have as many degrees in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology as one can get. I’m not bragging, just explaining my credentials for making the observation that the problems we face are because the Earth is too crowded.

The concept of carrying capacity describes an idea that the availability of resources (food, space, shelter) are limited in any given area (island, forest, planet) and will thus limit the number of individuals of a population (single species) and community (multiple species). In other words, every part of Earth has a limit to how many individuals it can support. Beyond carrying capacity, things occur to push the populations back toward the limit.

Humans are very good at modifying natural selection. Selection pressures that reduce natural mortality include medicing, temperature control, and sewage treatment. These things extend human lifespans and facilitate more of us living in a given area. They can even increase carrying capacity — to a point.

The Tragedy of the Commons, written by Garrett Hardin and published in 1968 describes how humans mistakenly believed that natural resources are essentially inexhaustible. We were wrong about that.

There are other ecological principles that illustrate the limitations of life on Earth, but these should suffice to make my point. The Earth can only support so many people. As we approach this limit we should expect things to get weird. The more we try to squeeze more people in, the more weird it should get.

We cannot expect to fit 8 pounds of potatoes in a 5 pound sack

The good news is, the Earth will recover. The bad news is, it isn’t clear whether or not humans will.

One thing we have going for us is we have the capacity to unlearn bad habits. We can balance resource use with resource generation and achieve a healthy carrying capacity (and arguably will, either via disease, disaster, or (gulp) choice)

The next time you do a thing. Drive to work. Eat at a restaurant. Call your cable company to ask when your internet will start working again. Think about how long it takes and how many other people are doing the exact same thing. Maybe people don’t actually suck (as individuals).

There’s just too many of us

I’m sure you’ve noticed. I know I have. Many, if not all of the things I enjoy doing have become so crowded I don’t want to do them anymore.

Have you noticed that the fun things you like to do have become more and more crowded?

Put another way, have you noticed that there is increased competition for the items and activities you like to buy or do?

And I’m not talking about COVID related things, this was going on long before COVID. Of course, COVID has exacerbated this phenomenon.

I first noticed this about 2000. A bluegrass festival I first attended in 1993 had seen crowds increase maybe tenfold over 7 years. Now, a big part of that can be attributed to increased popularity of bluegrass music realted to the movie, ‘Oh Brother, Where Art Thou?’, but I was never convinced the increase was 100% explained by that.

No, something else is going on

And this suspicion was supported by the other events I noticed that seemed more and more crowded. Some of the these are:

Movie theaters being more crowded than they used to be.

Having to wait longer to get a table at a restaurant, sometimes so long we would decide not to eat out.

Campgrounds having fewer, if any, vacant sites.

Concerts, in general, selling out faster and faster with increased ticket prices.

Long story short, I think what I am noticing — and probably you are, too — is the increased NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN THE WORLD

Sure, there are parts of the world, even parts of the U.S.A., that are not growing and even getting less populated. But the theme of the world is more and more and more people.

So it makes sense that all the things I like to do, more and more people like to do, too.

I live in a tiny town (about 10,000 people) in a tiny county (maybe 50,000 people) in a rural part of the United States. The closest city you’ve ever heard of is about 4 hours away. The closes airport hub is 3 hours away. My region of the world is not experiencing population growth due to job losses. There are ares within an hour or so, however, that ARE growing. But in my daily life I see a fairly stagnant number of people.

So, theoretically, the activities I do locally should be populated by a comparable number of people. Yet even here, in rural America, all the things are more and more crowded. There’s more traffic. More shopping. Longer waits at the restaurant. And, again, some of this is COVID related, but it has been going on for the entirety of my life here, going on 15 years.

And as I gaze further afield to parts of the state I have regularly visited for most of my life, I see the same pattern on a larger scale. In more populated areas, the increased crowds are even more severe.

This, of course, results in greater demand and reduced supply

In terms of capitalism, religion, and politics this is great news. There going to be more consumers, tithers, and constituents. Which means more money and profits, more people to support religious agendas, and more people to muddy the political waters allowing for politicians to more easily control them. Representative government becomes more and more ridiculous the greater the number of consituents any one elector represents. Which is great for the politicians.

So in terms of the systems we have chosen, increasing population size is a good thing.

The detrimental effects are left for us as individuals.

Greater competition for the things we want and need.

Reduced supply of said things.

Increased cost of everything.

Increased resource expenditures for everything. Beyond money, it’s just going to be more difficult. More time consuming. More frustrating.

As a result

I would expect things like the Great Resignation to happen. Reduced college attendance. Lower voter turnout. More apathy. Fewer capitalistic tendencies.

Because when competition is too intense, opting out becomes a viable strategy. Why compete when the odds of winning are so low? Unless the prize is an absolute necessity.

I would expect hyper inflation. Because with so many people, there are going to be more outliers willing to pay what used to be too much for whatever good or service.

I would expect there to be more losers and fewer winners. I would expect the losers to start to unite (see the Great Resignation).

I would expect exponentially increasing crowds at ‘popular’ events. Been to Disney lately? You can’t just buy a ticket, walk in, and expect to ride any rides or see any shows any more. You can actually ‘rent’ a private guide that lets you skip the line. I assume there is a cap on the number of parties that can do this on any given day.

Closing note

One way to avoid all of this, and quite possibly the SOLUTION to all of this, is to choose the road less traveled. Come up with your own fun. You want to hike to the beautiful waterfall? Maybe skip that trail and wander somewhere else. Other elements of nature can be almost as awesome. Come up with your own examples.

In Ecology, this is called ‘resource partitioning’. When competition for limited resources becomes too fierce, species will choose other resources they don’t have to work too hard to obtain. This a critical, and often overlooked (because, less sexy) element of natural selection that is exceptionally successful. Resource partitioning leads to adaptation and speciation. In a nutshell, Diversity.

Be Diversity.